By Tarr Mathias
Introduction: The Lie APC/Tinubu Sold to Nigerians in May, 2023
In May 2023, President Bola Tinubu declared “Subsidy is gone” and APC’s propaganda machine told 200 million Nigerians there was no alternative. They said suffering was reform. They said empty kitchens were sacrifice for future. Two years later, the future has not come, but the books have not balanced either.
Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, presidential candidate of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), has just destroyed that lie with his Atiku Economic Recovery Plan (AERP) 2027. And majority of Nigerians are listening, because for the first time, someone is showing that fuel subsidy removal was not the only option, it was just the lazy option.
What INEC 2023 Data Actually Shows About Tinubu’s Weakness
Tinubu did not win. He escaped. 8,794,726 votes out of 93.4 million registered voters is 9.4% of registered voters. 68 million Nigerians refused to vote. He lost Lagos, his home state, to Peter Obi. He lost FCT by 190,000 votes against Obi’s 281,717 vs APC 90,902. He won Rivers only because Wike, then PDP governor, delivered 231,591 for APC against PDP’s 88,468.
APC’s so-called structure of 32 governors today is not strength; it is the same structure that could not deliver Lagos and FCT in 2023. The Progressive Governors Forum opposing Wike’s Rainbow Coalition proves it: they know Wike is a PDP man wearing APC agbada. Wike himself admitted at Port Harcourt in May 2026: “The only decision we have taken is that we are going to support President Bola Ahmed Tinubu” but the Rainbow Coalition has not even chosen a governor. It is a one-man coalition, a threat to APC as Denge Josef Onoh said: “A non-member cannot operate a parallel political machine that dictates terms to ruling party.”
Atiku Economic Recovery Plan (AERP) As The Game Changer That Resonated
On August 21, 2026, Atiku through his media aide Phrank Shaibu unveiled AERP. It does not bring back the old thief subsidy. It brings a new production subsidy:
“My proposal is not to resurrect the old subsidy regime. We will move subsidy from importation to production, from middlemen to Nigerian refineries, and from unverifiable claims to verifiable barrels. The principle is simple: the subsidy will follow the barrel.” — Atiku Abubakar
The 5 pillars that resonated with the majority of discerning Nigerins:
- Targeted, Capped, Budgeted: Cost will be known before subsidy. Ceiling will be known. Beneficiaries will be known. Atiku said: “We will determine what Nigeria can afford before we subsidise. We will not subsidise first and discover the bill afterwards.”
- From Import to Production: Qualifying public and private Nigerian refineries; Dangote, Port Harcourt, Warri receive domestic crude at preferential price, but only if they refine in Nigeria and supply Nigerians. “No production, no subsidy. No domestic supply, no subsidy. No measurable benefit to Nigerians, no subsidy.”
- No Phantom Cargoes: Crude allocation, refinery intake, production yields, inventories and domestic deliveries will be reconciled. “No phantom cargoes. No fictitious imports. No unverifiable under-recoveries. No retrospective claims.”
- No Favouritism: Allocation based on verified capacity, not political discretion. Any refinery that diverts subsidized crude to foreign market loses eligibility and refunds money.
- Sunset Clause: Support reduces as refining capacity and competition improve until Nigeria needs no subsidy.
Why Nigerians resonate? Because Tinubu’s removal has not removed cost. NNPC audited accounts reportedly show ₦17.5 trillion in energy security costs and under-recoveries between 2023-2024. Atiku asked the killer question: “Tinubu told Nigerians subsidy was dead. Yet NNPC’s audited accounts reportedly contain approximately ₦17.5 trillion… So what exactly did Tinubu remove? If subsidy is dead, why are under-recoveries alive?”
Why Voters Will Choose Atiku Over Tinubu Barring Institutional Infidelities
1. The Economy Reason: Tinubu’s model impoverished citizens to enrich government. Atiku said: “You do not build a federation by impoverishing citizens so that Abuja can send bigger cheques to governors. That is robbing households to subsidise governments.” Factory shelves full, kitchen cupboards empty; manufacturers report ₦2.14 trillion unsold goods because Nigerians cannot afford to buy. Atiku’s $10 billion fund for young entrepreneurs, agro-processing, and industrial clusters directly answers this. He says: “When we process more of what we produce, manufacture more of what we consume and export finished goods like chocolate, leather, textiles. These will deliver more foreign exchange.”
2. The Accountability Reason: Atiku challenged Tinubu to account for about ₦30 trillion in Federation revenues, deductions, savings, transfers and ₦12.8 trillion Service-Wide Vote in 2026 budget. “If Tinubu can mobilise an army of propagandists to attack Atiku within hours, surely he can find one accountant to explain his books.” Nigerians are tired of suffering as policy.
3. The Unity Reason: Wike’s rainbow is fake rainbow; four parties under one man. Atiku’s ADC coalition is real rainbow: Atiku (North), Peter Obi (South-East youth), Rotimi Amaechi (South-South), Nasir El-Rufai (Northwest), David Mark (Northcentral). As PDP Spokesman Abdullahi said: “Imagine if we had Obi, Kwankwaso still in party, we would have won 2023.” In 2023, Atiku 6,984,520 + Obi 6,101,533 = 13,086,053 vs Tinubu 8,794,726. Together, they win. Wike knows this, that is why he assembled his own rainbow to stop ADC rainbow.
4. The Northern-Southern Balance Reason: Tinubu’s 4 years will be 4 years of Southwest presidency. By 2027, North will demand return after Buhari 8 + Tinubu 4 = 12 years of APC. Atiku is the only Northerner with national network who can also accommodate South via Obi as partner. Tinubu’s 32 governors are mostly seeking a second term; they will protect their states, not Tinubu.
Conclusion: The Votes Will Swing in 2027
APC propaganda of “no alternative to subsidy removal” is dead. AERP has provided alternative: production-linked, capped, transparent, tracked barrel-by-barrel. Nigerians now know they have choice between suffering as reform (Tinubu) and disciplined support that lowers pump price (Atiku).
So, Wike can promise Rivers and FCT, but Rivers has 3.5 million voters, FCT has 1.5 million. The 68 million who did not vote in 2023 are not in Wike’s luncheon in Port Harcourt. They are in markets where N2.14 trillion goods sit unsold because Tinubu made them too poor to buy.
Barring INEC’s technical glitches and incumbency abuse, the street has decided: Atiku’s economy plan resonates because it returns subsidy to the people, not to middlemen. In 2027, Nigerians will not vote for rainbow that has only one color; Tinubu. They will vote for recovery.
