FORGET ‘GARAJE’ DRAMA, TINUBU IS SWEATING OVER ADC’S RISE: THE SLOW, SURE SURGE THAT RATTLES THE ROCK

Aare Amerijoye DOT.B

IT BEGAN LIKE A WHISPER

It began quietly, like a whisper in a crowded market. In the middle of 2025, while the nation choked under inflation, hunger and frustration, a spark was struck. That spark was the African Democratic Congress, a party long dismissed as a footnote on Nigeria’s political stage. But history has a savage sense of humour. It is written by those once considered irrelevant.

In a cramped community hall in Ijebu, Ogun State, a young ADC coordinator stood before okada riders and pepper sellers. No convoy. No flamboyance. Just a chalkboard, a marker and a message that burned:

We are not forming a third force. We are forming the first clean force Nigeria has ever seen.

That was the whisper. One year on, the whisper has become a rumble. And the rumble is shaking the Rock.

A NATION BEGINS TO MOVE

Since July 2025, when the coalition of opposition leaders adopted the ADC platform and Atiku Abubakar led the march into it, something has stirred across this country. Not instant dominance. Something more dangerous to the establishment: a slow, deliberate awakening among citizens tired of recycled failure. Listen to the country. It is speaking in every tongue.

In Sokoto, schoolteachers and health workers, battered by delayed salaries, want to join something honest from the beginning. In Kano, petty traders who lost their stalls to demolitions without a kobo of compensation turned to ADC. We have followed noise before, said Usman, a small shop owner. Now we want to follow values.

In Ekiti, unemployed graduates walked away from what they call a two party monopoly that trades in false hope, resolving to grow ADC in the grassroots, school by school.

In Lagos, of all places, in the very shadow of Bourdillon, coders are building grassroots digital campaigns with their own hands and their own data. We do not want stipends, said Chibuzor in Ikeja. We want a structure we can believe in.

From Imo to Anambra, students are forming ADC awareness hubs. We have been used for protests but never included in planning, said Tochukwu in Owerri. This time we want to be in the kitchen, not just the crowd.

In Adamawa, those who moved with Atiku Abubakar into ADC say it plainly. It is not just loyalty to a man, said Ibrahim in Yola. It is commitment to a mission.

The same fire is catching everywhere. Young farmers in Oyo and Benue. Oil workers in Rivers and Delta who say the best time to join a party is when you can still shape it. Tailors, welders and vulcanisers in Akwa Ibom. First time voters in Katsina drawn by the absence of godfathers. And even in Borno, among the displaced, Halima, a mother of three, said simply: we have lived through lies. We want to help build something from scratch.

They are not joining because the party is dominant. They are joining because it is different. They do not want to merely vote for it. They want to grow with it.

THE ARITHMETIC OF ANGER

This surge is not sentiment. It is arithmetic.

By the World Bank’s own reckoning of April 2026, poverty in Nigeria climbed from fifty six per cent in 2023 to sixty three per cent in 2025. That is roughly one hundred and forty million Nigerians below the poverty line, under an administration that celebrates a falling inflation chart while families fall through the floor. The IMF, for its part, found public expenditure worth about two per cent of GDP simply omitted from recent budgets, a shadow treasury operating beside the official one.

These are not statistics. These are voters, counting the days to the sixteenth of January, 2027.

And in May 2026, the movement acquired its spearhead, when Atiku Abubakar swept the ADC presidential primary with over one million, eight hundred thousand votes from a turnout of more than two and a half million members, under a coalition leadership anchored by Senator David Mark, who declared that there is no victor and no vanquished, only a collective mission to rescue Nigeria.

The whisper now has a name on the ballot.

IDEAS CANNOT BE TEARGASSED

Karl Marx observed that the ruling class fears ideas more than guns. ADC is spreading exactly that kind of dangerous idea, the kind that cannot be teargassed, cannot be handcuffed, cannot be settled with a brown envelope. Che Guevara warned that revolution is not an apple that falls when it is ripe; you have to make it fall. ADC is shaking the tree. And Huey Newton put it best. You can jail a revolutionary, but you cannot jail a revolution.

This is not about a party. It is about a movement. A hunger. A defiance. A rising tide that respects no walls and fears no title.

THE ROCK IS CRACKING

Look at the ruling party’s conduct and ask yourself whether it is the conduct of the confident.

The Senate President boasts that opposition ranks in the upper chamber have shrunk from fifty to five, and calls it consolidation. History calls it fear dressed as triumph. Governors are harvested like ripe mangoes, whole cabinets defecting overnight, while the ADC has warned from the beginning that the destination of this gale is a one party state.

Yet the panic shows. Atiku Abubakar revealed only days ago that political and legal machinations are being mobilised to keep the ADC off the ballot entirely, through manufactured leadership crises, judicial ambushes and administrative harassment. His question hangs in the air, unanswered: if the APC is truly confident of its popularity, why is it so terrified of the ADC? You do not sue off the ballot a party you do not fear.

And inside the Rock itself, the cracks widen. The Progressive Governors’ Forum has split into quiet factions over an attempted removal of its chairman. The party’s own candidates’ list is shrouded in secrecy, with INEC publicly warning it will reject nominees who did not emerge from monitored primaries. Even the Vice Presidential slot is the subject of whispered substitution rumours.

The man who once roared Emi Lokan is now, in the quiet of the villa, left to ask Kini mo se? What have I done? Because you can defect a governor. You can defect a senator. You cannot defect the people.

THE CALL

So the real question is no longer whether Tinubu is sweating. He is. The real question is whether Nigerians will act before they drown.

Register. Collect your PVC. Join the conversation in your ward. And on the sixteenth of January, 2027, protect your vote as you would protect your own child, because this time they are not only fighting for your vote, they are fighting to decide whether your choice appears on the ballot at all.

Like wildfire, it is never the noise that consumes the forest. It is the spark. ADC has become that spark.

And that, dear compatriots, is why the Lion of Bourdillon is no longer roaring.

He is sweating.

The trouble with Nigeria is simply and squarely a failure of leadership. Chinua Achebe

Aare Amerijoye DOT.B
Director General,
The Narrative Force
thenarrativeforce.org
10 July 2026

Aare Amerijoye Donald Olalekan Temitope Bowofade (DOT.B) is a Nigerian political strategist, public intellectual, and writer. He serves as the Director-General of The Narrative Force (TNF), a strategic communication and political-education organisation committed to shaping ideas, narratives, and democratic consciousness in Nigeria. An indigene of Ekiti State, he was born in Osogbo, then Oyo State, now Osun State, and currently resides in Ekiti State. His political and civic engagement spans several decades. In the 1990s, he was actively involved in Nigeria’s human-rights and pro-democracy struggles, participating in organisations such as Human Rights Africa and the Nigerianity Movement among many others, where he worked under the leadership of Dr. Tunji Abayomi during the nation’s fight for democratic restoration. Between 2000 and 2002, he served as Assistant Organising Secretary of Ekiti Progressives and the Femi Falana Front, under Barrister Femi Falana (SAN), playing a key role in grassroots mobilisation, civic education, and progressive political advocacy. He has since served in government and party politics in various capacities, including Senior Special Assistant to the Ekiti State Governor on Political Matters and Inter-Party Relations, Secretary to the Local Government, and Special Assistant on Youth Mobilisation and Strategy. At the national level, he has been a member of various nationally constituted party and electoral committees, including the PDP Presidential Campaign Council Security Committee (2022) and the Ondo State 2024 election committee. Currently, he is a member of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) and serves as Secretary of the Ekiti State ADC Strategic Committee, where he plays a central role in party structuring, strategy, and grassroots coordination. Aare Amerijoye writes extensively on governance, leadership ethics, party politics, and national renewal. His essays and commentaries have been published in Nigerian Tribune, Punch, The Guardian, THISDAY, TheCable, and leading digital platforms. His work blends philosophical depth with strategic clarity, advancing principled politics anchored on truth, justice, and moral courage.

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