The D-37 a group of avid presidential election political process thinkers aligned with the late High Chief, Dr. Raymond Dokpesi who had the privilege to work with HE Bamanga Turkur, HE Peter Odili, HE Gen. Ibrahim Badamosi Babangida and HE Atiku Abubakar as Director General of their presidential campaigns wishes to offer our party the African Democratic Congress (ADC) our reasoned thoughts on its ticket selection strategy for 2027. Pursuant to this, we commend two factual considerations the party must not lose sight of to say:
- The first rule of presidential strategy is brutal honesty.
- The second is arithmetic.
In that regard, we urge the party with respect to applying Consensus, pursuant to Section 84 of the Electoral Act 2026 to deploy Honesty and Arithmetic to decide. If this is done, Honesty and Arithmetic will counsel the party in our considered opinion thus:
Concede the South-West—Face Reality First
Bola Ahmed Tinubu is not merely the incumbent; he is the most deeply rooted political force the South-West has produced in decades. Expecting the All Progressives Congress to lose that base wholesale is not an honest strategy, it is self-deception.
At best, the opposition can reduce margins, not win dominance.
Serious campaigns do not begin with hope; they begin with what can be counted.
Rebuild the Winning Map Where It Actually Exists
Once the illusion is stripped away, the electoral map becomes brutally clear.
- North-West + North East: The Deciding Reservoir
The North-West in particular is Nigeria’s largest voting bloc. In a two-horse race, dominance here does not just help, it cancels out entire regions.
No coalition that loses the North-West wins Nigeria. None, pre independence, 1st Republic, 2nd, 3rd and 4th Republic presidential election results suffice.
- North-Central: The Conversion Belt
This region is not just complementary, it is the decisive multiplier.
With a credible, cosmopolitan Northern candidate, this belt transforms raw Northern strength into a nationally viable majority, replicating the structural logic of the 2015 Nigerian presidential election that brought Muhammadu Buhari to power. - South-East: The Cohesive Bloc
The five South-East states provide something rare in Nigerian politics: predictability and cohesion.
Paired with the right vice-presidential candidate from this zone, they will deliver:
Reliable vote concentration;
Constitutional spread; and
Psychological
momentum.
- South-South: The Battlefield, Not the Base
The South-South is fluid, and may appear a bit transactional, but it is competitive. It can swing, but it cannot win an election on its own.
It is the margin zone, not the foundation. It is therefore the battle ground zone with little incentive for monolithic voting in 2027. Previously, however, it represented a voting reservoir for the PDP but that concentration was diluted in 2023.
The Strategic Core: A Replicable Winning Formula
A properly constructed ADC ticket, anchored in the North and complemented by a South-East running mate, is likely to recreate a modern version of the 2015 coalition, without relying on the South-West.
Volume : North-West + North-East
Spread : North-Central + South-East
Momentum : Competitive South-South
This is not theory. It is the closest existing blueprint to an opposition coalition winning the presidential election in Nigeria today.
The Governors Illusion: Power Without Votes
A dangerous myth is gaining ground, that assembling governors equals assembling votes.
It does not.
In 2015, the Peoples Democratic Party controlled about 27 governors, yet lost the presidency to the opposition APC with far less.
In 2023, the APC held a commanding spread of governors, yet failed to translate that dominance into uniform presidential victories across those states.
Why?
Because Nigerian voters have evolved:
I. Urban voters defy local structures.
II. Youth turnout disrupts old patronage systems.
III. Protest voting overrides elite directives.
IV. Governors no longer “deliver” states, they only negotiate influence within them.
Tinubu’s Consolidation Strategy—Strength or Overreach?
Bola Ahmed Tinubu has succeeded in aligning an overwhelming majority of governors under the APC, to project control, but it also creates the following risks:
I. Elite over concentration breeds voter resentment.
II. Perceived one-party dominance fuels protest coalitions.
III. Complacency weakens grassroots vigilance.
IV. Internal contradictions risk implosion and weakened loyalty.
The paradox is simple:
The more unified the political class becomes, the more unpredictable the electorate becomes.
The ADC Opportunity: Precision, Not Panic
This is where the African Democratic Congress must show strategic maturity.
Consolidate the North-West and North-East completely
This is existential. Without it, there is no path.
Lock down the South-East
Not symbolically, but structurally and emotionally.
Compete aggressively in the North-Central
This region decides close elections and national spread.
Exploit fractures in the South-South
Governors may defect, but voters are not commodities.
The Bottom Line: Build What Wins Not What Messages Sentiments
If the ADC successfully assembles:
A united Northern voting machine.
A fully activated South-East bloc.
And a competitive battlefield in North-Central and South-South
…then even a South-West concession and a governor-heavy APC will not be enough to stop it.
Because modern Nigerian elections are no longer decided by: who controls the most governors.
They are decided by: who aggregates the most votes across the right geographies and demographics.
FINAL VERDICT
2027 will not reward noise.
It will not reward symbolism.
It will not reward elite alignments.
2027 will reward strategy over structure, and numbers over illusion.
D-37
