By Kunle Oshobi
As the 2027 elections approach, Nigeria’s political landscape is witnessing a sense of déjà vu that feels less like coincidence and more like a calculated script. Reports indicating that Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso and Peter Obi have both moved to decamp from the African Democratic Congress (ADC) to join the National Democratic Congress (NDC) have sent shockwaves through the opposition. However, beneath the surface of these “ambitious” moves lies a darker theory: that this fragmentation is the handiwork of the Tinubu administration, designed to ensure the opposition remains too fractured to pose a real threat.
Orchestrated Discord?
Credible political analysts suggest that the Presidency, wary of a united front, has actively sought to sow discord within the opposition coalition. The strategy appears to involve leveraging established political figures to prevent any meaningful consolidation. By reportedly influencing Kwankwaso—who some claim is working in a clandestine partnership with the APC—to persuade Peter Obi to leave the ADC and seek a separate platform, the administration has effectively neutralised the threat of a singular, formidable opponent.
A Masterclass in “Divide and Conquer”
This maneuver mirrors the events of the 2023 elections, where the failure of these same leaders to unite resulted in a split vote that paved the way for the APC’s victory.
The Transactional Playbook: Kwankwaso’s history of “transactional politics” is once again in the spotlight. His frequent shifts in allegiance are seen by critics not as a search for ideological alignment, but as a method of maintaining leverage and potentially serving as a spoiler for the ruling party.
The Unstable Ambition: Peter Obi’s recent departure from the ADC, citing internal battles, has further weakened the party’s foundation. Critics describe this as a sign of an unstable character, driven by a personal desperation for the presidency that overrides the collective goal of the opposition.
The Real Winner: The Incumbent
While Obi and Kwankwaso present their moves as a pursuit of “new directions,” the immediate beneficiary of this chaos is Bola Ahmed Tinubu. A divided opposition cannot effectively challenge an incumbent who controls the vast resources of the state. By moving to the NDC, Obi and Kwankwaso are not building a new alternative; they are diluting the existing one, ensuring that the “opposition” remains a collection of competing egos rather than a unified force for change.
If the 2023 elections taught the Nigerian electorate anything, it is that a divided house cannot stand against a focused incumbent. By repeating the same mistakes, Obi and Kwankwaso are increasingly being viewed as the Trojan horses of the 2027 cycle, ensuring that the real victory remains firmly within the grasp of the presidency.
Kunle Oshobi is the Head of Strategy and Planning of The Narrative Force
