Why Northern arithmetic, not online noise, will decide Nigeria’s next presidency.
Last Wednesday the news filtered through Abuja, Onitsha, Aba, Awka, Nsukka, and the crowded WhatsApp loops, Facebook, Instagram and Twitter spaces of Nigerian politics, something unmistakable happened. It was not noise; it was relief. The kind that comes when a long-anticipated door finally opens.
The South-East’s most credible political leaders, led symbolically by Peter Obi, had formally taken their place within the African Democratic Congress (ADC).
This was not a defection born of panic. It was not an overnight conversion. It was the public acknowledgement of a coalition that had existed quietly from the very beginning. What changed was not loyalty, but courage.
What erupted was not surprise, but clarity. The political atmosphere shifted the way harmattan shifts the air: suddenly sharp, suddenly honest.
As Obafemi Awolowo once admonished, “Politics is not a game of emotions; it is a serious business that demands discipline, planning, and clarity of purpose.”
That seriousness of purpose is precisely what this moment represents.
And for the North, this moment carried a deeper resonance. It was the confirmation that the long-standing bridge between Northern political realism and South-Eastern moral urgency had not collapsed. It was proof that the North was no longer being framed as a problem to be managed, but as a pillar to be partnered. In a country where elections are won not by sentiment but by spread, structure, and scale, this alignment immediately recalibrated the 2027 equation.
Yet, as often happens at moments of historic alignment, impatience has begun to masquerade as activism. Some Obidients, intoxicated by moral fervour but starved of electoral arithmetic, have turned their energy inward, attacking Atiku Abubakar and other figures within ADC. This is not strategy; it is self-sabotage.
It is like passengers fighting over seats while the bus is still battling bandits on the highway.
For the North, such internal attacks are not merely unhelpful; they are dangerous. Northern politics is historically allergic to chaos within opposition ranks.
Here, the warning of Ahmadu Bello remains timeless: “We must be united in purpose and disciplined in action, for only unity gives strength to a nation.”
When disunity signals weakness, the North does not gamble; it retreats. Every successful national coalition that has won power in Nigeria has done so by presenting the North with clarity, discipline, and respect.
Fratricide frightens voters; unity mobilises them.
ADC has spoken with refreshing clarity. There is no zoning of the presidential ticket. Every aspirant must submit to party process, internal democracy, and collective decision. No candidate will emerge by trending hashtags or online bloodletting.
Power in Nigeria is not won by who insults best, but by who convinces most.
This position is particularly reassuring to the North. Northern voters are historically suspicious of pre-arranged coronations. And in the case of Atiku there is no prearranged coronation but persuasion and determination to lead Nigeria to greatness.
As Nnamdi Azikiwe wisely observed, “A nation prospers not by the noise of its factions, but by the discipline with which it pursues a common destiny.”
The North respond better to open contests where competence, history, and structure speak louder than entitlement. ADC’s insistence on process aligns perfectly with the Northern political culture of negotiation, consensus-building, and earned authority.
History proves this mercilessly.
Let us now descend from rhetoric into the hard granite of numbers, because elections are not poetry; they are arithmetic disciplined by geography.
According to INEC’s officially declared 2023 presidential election results, the Northern zones,North-West, North-East, and North-Central,produced the numerical backbone of the election.
In the North, Bola Ahmed Tinubu recorded 5,598,686 votes across the three Northern zones.Atiku Abubakar followed closely with 5,229,473 Northern votes, winning the North-East outright and remaining strongly competitive in both the North-West and North-Central.Peter Obi secured 2,080,866 votes in the entire North, concentrated largely in urban and minority pockets rather than broad territorial spread.Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso polled 1,496,687 votes nationally, and 997,279 of those votes came from Kano State alone, a single state accounting for nearly two-thirds of his entire national tally.
Summed together, the North produced approximately 14,404,000 votes for these four candidates alone, reaffirming,yet again, that the North remains the decisive gravitational centre of Nigerian presidential power.
Now juxtapose this with the Southern zones, South-West, South-East, and South-South.
In the South, Peter Obi recorded 4,010,151 votes, overwhelmingly driven by his dominance in the South-East and strong support in the South-South, but with significantly thinner penetration in the South-West.Tinubu secured 3,206,734 Southern votes, anchored primarily in the South-West, with markedly weaker performance in the South-East and South-South.
Atiku Abubakar, despite facing a largely hostile Southern political environment, still polled 1,750,817 votes across the South, confirming national presence even where he was not regionally favoured.
Kwankwaso’s Southern total stood at just 326,292 votes, statistically marginal when placed beside his Kano-heavy Northern haul.
In total, the South produced approximately 9,293,994 votes, almost five million fewer than the North.
The comparison is stark and unforgiving.
The North out-voted the South by a wide margin. Tinubu and Atiku both derived the bulk of their national totals from Northern votes. Obi’s strength, while morally impressive, remained geographically compressed in the South, and Kwankwaso’s support proved intensely localised around Kano.
In 2023, Peter Obi won the South-East almost entirely. Yet nationally, his total votes stood at 6,101,533.Atiku Abubakar, despite sabotage within his own party and opposition fragmentation, secured 6,984,520 votes nationwide.Tinubu “won” with 8,794,726 votes in a country with over 93 million registered voters, where turnout collapsed to approximately 27 percent, one of the lowest participation rates globally.
These numbers alone expose the fragility of the current order.
To the North, these figures tell an even deeper story. They reveal that Atiku’s votes were not sentimental votes; they were structural votes, votes rooted in emirates, wards, local governments, and enduring political relationships. These are not protest votes that vanish after one cycle; they are durable electoral assets.
To imagine that attacking Atiku weakens Tinubu is to misunderstand Nigerian electoral physics. It does the opposite. And to think attacking Atiku would prevent him from contesting is self-delusion; those still waiting at that bus stop should understand that the vehicle left long ago.
From a Northern strategic standpoint, weakening Atiku weakens the only opposition figure with proven reach across all three Northern zones. It fragments the bloc that has historically determined who governs Nigeria. It replaces tested capacity with emotional speculation, a gamble the North rarely takes.
Within ADC, the sensible path is not fratricide but persuasion. Campaign for your preferred candidate. Sell ideas. Build structures. Numbers, not noise, decide elections.
Let me therefore be clear and unapologetic. To me, Aare Amerijoye DOT.B, an Ekiti man from the South-West, Atiku Abubakar is my candidate. I arrive at this position not by sentiment, but by data, history, and a sober reading of Nigeria’s power map.
This position also reflects a Northern understanding of fairness, memory, and consequence. The North understands patience, but it does not sanctify suffering. It accepts deferred justice only where justice is clearly defined, mutually agreed, and visibly pursued. Where agreements are honoured, loyalty is deep; where trust is betrayed and hardship prolonged, the North does not wait,it renegotiates power.
At this material time, Atiku’s political journey resonates deeply with Northern voters because it reflects endurance, consistency, and sacrifice, not entitlement.
On the grand chessboard of Nigerian politics, the North has always held the queen. Of Nigeria’s 93,469,008 registered voters in the 2023 election, 51,173,174,representing approximately 54.8 percent,are located in the three Northern zones. No presidential candidate has reached Aso Rock since 1999 without substantial Northern endorsement. This is not ideology; it is arithmetic.
The North is not merely a voting bloc; it is the balancing force of the federation. It anchors coalitions, moderates extremities, and determines whether a presidency is stable or fragile. Any serious 2027 project must therefore speak first to Northern logic before appealing to national emotion.
For the South-East, this history matters. It shows continuity of respect, depth of engagement, and a political philosophy anchored in partnership rather than tokenism.
For the North, this matters deeply. It signals honour. It signals reliability. It signals a leader who understands that national stability is built on inclusion, not domination.
2027 will not reward political harlots or seasonal loyalists. It will reward those who stood firm when betrayal was fashionable. Atiku did not merely contest; he carried the opposition when others fled. History does not forget such men.
Come 2027, the North will speak again, not in rage, but in resolve. Under the ADC canopy, Atiku Abubakar stands as the most tested, most bankable, and most unifying electoral force available.
Ignore this truth, and prepare for another long exile in the wilderness of opposition.
Aare Amerijoye DOT.B
Director General,
The Narrative Force
