If politics were driven by emotion alone, Nigeria would have changed hands many times on Twitter. But states are not won by adrenaline. Power is transferred by coalitions, distribution, endurance, and hard arithmetic. Any political movement that refuses to learn this condemns itself to permanent protest.
This is where a segment of the Obidient movement continues to falter—not in passion, not in sincerity, but in political maturity.
Let us advance the discussion.
The central error is the belief that moral enthusiasm automatically translates into electoral victory. It does not. History, in Nigeria and elsewhere, is brutally consistent on this point. Electoral success is a function of how many places you can win, not how loudly you are loved in a few places.
In 2023, Peter Obi ran the most emotionally charged campaign Nigeria has seen in years. Urban centres shook. Social media burned. Youth energy surged.
It is important to state clearly that Peter Obi is an intelligent, disciplined, and principled public figure whose personal integrity and issue-driven politics have inspired millions and elevated the quality of political conversation in Nigeria.
Yet when the ballots were counted, reality intervened. The official figures released by INEC placed him behind Atiku Abubakar, who secured 6,984,520 votes against Obi’s 6,101,533.
This was not a marginal fluke. It was a structural outcome.
Atiku finished ahead despite a divided party, internal sabotage, governors playing double games, and an election climate hostile to opposition. Obi, by contrast, enjoyed unity of message and unprecedented volunteer enthusiasm. If momentum alone won elections, the result would have been reversed. It was not—because momentum without machinery collapses at scale.
This brings us to the first uncomfortable truth some Obidients refuse to confront:
National elections are won by spread, not spikes.
Nigeria is not a city-state. It is a vast federation of 774 local governments, thousands of wards, layered ethnicities, faith networks, trade blocs, and traditional authorities. A candidate who excites Lagos and Abuja but cannot penetrate rural North West, North East, large parts of the South West, and swing zones of the North Central will always hit a ceiling.
Obi hit that ceiling in 2023.
His strongest performances clustered around the South East, sections of the South South, and Christian-dominated parts of the North Central. Again, this is not an insult. It is electoral sociology. But presidential power requires national diffusion, not regional concentration.
Atiku’s votes, by contrast, were spread across all six geopolitical zones. Even where he did not win outright, he competed. That ability to compete everywhere is the difference between a movement and a government-in-waiting.
Now let us address the myth that “structures no longer matter.”
This is the most dangerous illusion of all.
Structures are not merely governors and senators. They are religious institutions, traditional councils, market associations, transport unions, youth and women networks, party agents, and election-day logistics. They are what protect votes when emotions cool and polling units close.
Atiku has spent over four decades building these bridges—north to south, Muslim to Christian, elite to grassroots. Politics at presidential level is not a sprint. It is a long-distance negotiation with society itself.
This is why the argument that Obi achieved six million votes “without structures” is misleading. He did not lack structures; he lacked sufficient national structures. The difference is decisive.
Then there is the issue of governability, which Obidient rhetoric often avoids.
Winning an election is only phase one. Governing Nigeria requires managing a combustible federation where trust, balance, and perception matter as much as policy. Since 1999, the South has governed for a longer cumulative period than the North. Any serious strategist knows this arithmetic cannot be ignored without consequences.
This is not about entitlement. It is about stability.
A 2027 ticket that reassures the North while integrating the South East into power is not a betrayal of justice; it is an act of political wisdom. A Vice-Presidential pathway for the South East is not marginalisation. It is institutional entry, succession grooming, and national acceptance. Power that comes without national consent rarely lasts.
Here, Atiku’s temperament becomes decisive.
Age has not weakened him; it has disciplined him. He understands compromise without cowardice, patience without paralysis, and firmness without recklessness. Nigeria’s next transition requires exactly this blend. The country is too fragile for experimental absolutism.
The most troubling aspect of Obidient extremism is not their love for Obi; it is their contempt for process. Politics is not advanced by insults, threats, or “my way or nothing” ultimatums. Those tactics do not frighten opponents; they alienate allies. And elections are won by expanding coalitions, not shrinking them.
This is why the immature wing of the Obidient movement is not hurting Atiku. They are hurting Obi.
Every tantrum hardens resistance. Every insult closes a door. Every refusal to negotiate pushes undecided blocs toward safer, more predictable leadership.
Atiku’s camp understands this. That is why it is calm. That is why it is methodical. That is why it is confident.
In politics, noise is often the language of those without numbers.
The truth, stripped of emotion, is simple:
2027 demands a leader with national reach, tested alliances, institutional memory, and emotional restraint. Nigeria does not need another protest symbol. It needs a bridge-builder with arithmetic on his side.
That man is Atiku Abubakar.
Aare Amerijoye DOT.B
Director General,
The Narrative Force
