Within the African Democratic Congress, the direction of history is neither chaotic nor confused. It is orderly, procedural, and grounded in political reality. ADC is not a party of threats or tantrums; it is a party of process. And it is precisely within that process that Atiku Abubakar will emerge as the party’s presidential candidate.
In ancient Athens, it was said that when men shout in the agora, the wise count hands, not voices. Democracies collapse not when people speak loudly, but when rules are abandoned. ADC has chosen the harder path, the path of rules, knowing that only structure can outlive noise.
This is not optimism dressed up as prophecy. It is a conclusion drawn from patterns, precedents, and political behaviour that have repeated themselves consistently in Nigeria’s democratic journey. Parties that survive are parties that obey their own rules, and candidates that emerge are those who understand the weight of structure over sentiment.
There is a philosophical parable of two builders: one rushed to decorate his house, the other laboured quietly to strengthen its foundation. When the storm came, applause could not save paint, but silence saved stone. Politics, like architecture, rewards foundations, not decorations.
Atiku is not waiting at press conferences issuing ultimatums. He is on the field, doing the work politics demands. He is consolidating the North-East, strengthening bonds in the North-Central, deepening reach in the North-West, gravitating toward the South-South, engaging the South-West, and appealing thoughtfully to the South-East. This is not guesswork; it is the old, proven grammar of Nigerian elections.
It is the grammar written in ward meetings, sealed in delegate consultations, reinforced in quiet negotiations, and perfected in patience. It is the grammar that understands that elections are not won in comment sections, but in communities, not by trending outrage, but by trusted relationships built over time.
An old Fulani saying teaches that the cow that reaches water first is not the one that runs fastest, but the one that knows the path. Atiku’s journey has never been about sprinting for applause, but about knowing the road.
While this painstaking work is ongoing, a section of the Obidients have chosen another route, issuing threats that if it is not Obi, they will “put fire in ADC.” Such threats are not strategy; they are noise. They carry the volume of anger, but none of the weight of organisation. In politics, fire without fuel dies quickly, and noise without numbers fades faster.
There is a tale of a drummer who believed the village feared him because his drum was loud. When the rain came, it was not the drumbeat that saved the village, but the barns built quietly before the storm. Politics does not kneel to intimidation; it bows to preparation.
History is littered with movements that mistook moral rage for electoral readiness. They shouted, they threatened, they dominated timelines, but when the ballots were counted, their echoes vanished into irrelevance. Politics does not reward emotional blackmail; it rewards disciplined mobilisation.
The French philosopher Alexis de Tocqueville once warned that passions ignite revolutions, but institutions decide outcomes. Where passion refuses to submit to process, democracy bleeds.
ADC has been unequivocal. There is no zoning. There is no anointing. There is no emotional blackmail. Every aspirant must submit to party primary, internal democracy, and the will of delegates. Power will not be donated by hashtags; it will be earned by persuasion.
This clarity is not accidental. It is deliberate. It is designed to protect the party from implosion, from internal tyranny, and from the very culture of intimidation that has weakened opposition platforms in the past. ADC has chosen order over chaos, rules over noise, and process over pressure.
And having learned hard lessons from the cankerous behaviour of some actors in Atiku’s former party, behaviours that thrived on indiscipline, factional blackmail, and deliberate sabotage, ADC has consciously built precautionary measures to deny oxygen to such political cankerousness. Internal safeguards, clear disciplinary codes, respect for collective decisions, and zero tolerance for threats are now embedded into the party’s operating culture. In this house, political arsonists are not negotiated with; they are isolated.
Like the Roman Senate of old, which insisted that even Caesar must pass through law, ADC understands that once rules are bent for one man, they will be broken against all.
Atiku has accepted this openly. He is prepared not only to participate in a free and fair primary, but to win it. Not by intimidation, but by structure. Not by threats, but by reach. Not by entitlement, but by experience and nationwide acceptability. And if he emerges, he will proceed to the general election with confidence, legitimacy, and divine backing. No threat can short-circuit this path, except defeat at the primary, and that is the only lawful barrier recognised in democracy.
This posture is the mark of a serious contender. It reflects confidence in one’s political capital and respect for democratic norms. It also exposes the hollowness of those who fear the primary itself, because only those unsure of their strength attempt to burn down the arena.
Socrates once observed that those who fear examination usually distrust their own answers. A candidate afraid of primaries is a candidate unsure of persuasion.
The numbers remain unforgiving to fantasies. Nigeria’s electoral history shows clearly that presidential power flows through broad coalitions, especially across the North. That reality has not changed. Those who mistake online fervour for electoral gravity misunderstand the country they seek to govern.
Elections in Nigeria are still decided by spread, scale, and stamina. They reward candidates who can hold coalitions together, not those who fracture them with threats. They favour those who calm nerves, not those who inflame them.
As history teaches, empires fall not because enemies shout, but because leaders fail to count.
The sensible path is clear. Campaign. Persuade. Organise. Contest. Win or lose honourably. Anything outside this is political self-deception.
Parties are not conquered by rage; they are led by responsibility. Democracy is not preserved by threats; it is strengthened by participation.
Like a river that ignores stones but reshapes valleys over time, politics ultimately rewards patience.
Atiku understands this. ADC understands this. Nigeria’s political arithmetic confirms this.
He will emerge the candidate of ADC.And with God by his side, he will move forward to contest 2027 and offer Nigeria the respite it desperately needs.
Aare Amerijoye DOT.B
Director General,
The Narrative Force
