Aare Amerijoye DOT.B
There are elections fought at polling units.
And there are elections fought in memory.
The one that will determine 2027 is already underway , in hostels, in tech clusters, in NYSC camps, in frustrated job queues, in encrypted chat groups where Nigeria’s young debate whether this republic still recognises them.
It is the youth.
And at the centre of the coalition now capable of harnessing that energy stands the African Democratic Congress (ADC), under the chairmanship of David Mark, steady, institutional, disciplined , and animated nationally by the tested economic gravitas of Atiku Abubakar.
But this is not about ceremony. It is about consolidation.
Momentum without method is noise.Energy without structure is waste.Youth without direction is volatility.
Nigeria’s electoral arithmetic is ruthless in its clarity. Figures from the 2023 cycle released by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) show:
37 million registered voters (39.65%) are between 18–34.
33.4 million (35.75%) are between 35–49.
Nearly 75% of the electorate sits within youthful brackets.
Nigeria’s population is estimated at approximately 220 million. With roughly 60–70% under 30, the 19–24 demographic alone stands at around 22 million citizens.
Twenty-two million Nigerians who never witnessed governance during the Olusegun Obasanjo / Atiku era except through commentary.
They did not see the telecommunications revolution that connected a nation.They did not follow the Paris Club debt exit negotiations.They did not observe macroeconomic expansion that strengthened fiscal positioning.
They inherited edited narratives — not evidence.
And in politics, what is not defended is redesigned.
For years, the All Progressives Congress (APC) invested aggressively in narrative architecture. It understood something profound: repetition can turn distortion into familiarity, and familiarity into assumption. Complex governance years were reduced to caricature. Present hardship was reframed as inherited inevitability.
A generation that never experienced the Obasanjo/Atiku era was taught to distrust it — without being taught to compare it.
But comparison is now unavoidable.
The young graduate in Kano navigating inflation.The software developer in Lagos watching the naira fluctuate.The oil-community youth in Bayelsa asking where revenue translates into opportunity.The philosophy graduate in Enugu calculating shrinking purchasing power.
These are not abstract statistics. They are lived realities.
And lived realities interrogate propaganda.
Across the regions, measurable shifts are unfolding.
In the North, economic strain has sharpened political reassessment. Youth forums increasingly interrogate economic direction. The influence of figures like Nasir El-Rufai and Aminu Tambuwal adds weight to the broader coalition conversation, but it is Atiku’s enduring Northern credibility and executive experience that provides reassurance of tested leadership rather than experimental governance.
In the South-West, ideological debate remains sophisticated. The reformist posture of Rauf Aregbesola and the infrastructural assertiveness associated with Rotimi Amaechi contribute to coalition optics, yet it is Atiku’s national economic articulation that binds disparate reform voices into coherent direction. The South-West youth, analytical and digitally aware, respond not to noise but to structured economic reasoning.
In the South-East, the mobilisation energy previously galvanised around Peter Obi awakened a generation politically. That awakening is historic. But awakening seeks destination. Within a disciplined coalition anchored by Atiku’s national reach, youth enthusiasm finds broader electoral viability rather than isolated momentum.
In the South-South, economic grievance deepens scrutiny. Infrastructure, revenue, fiscal equity ,these questions demand executive competence. Atiku’s history of engaging fiscal reform at the highest level offers credibility that rhetoric alone cannot manufacture.
Others bring influence.
Atiku brings tested national capacity.
And youth, ultimately, seek capacity.
Aristotle once observed that the young are guided more by hope than by memory. But hope must be anchored in demonstration. It must see proof that governance can be methodical rather than theatrical.
David Mark provides institutional steadiness , the scaffolding necessary for generational transition.Coalition figures widen the psychological tent. Yet the superstructure of credibility rests most visibly on Atiku Abubakar’s long-tested engagement with economic reform, national negotiation, and cross-regional coalition building.
He is not merely a participant in this moment; he is its most nationally recognisable axis.
Where others symbolise segments, Atiku symbolises span.
But influence must convert into participation.
ADC must:
Deploy structured youth economic blueprints region by region.
Present comparative governance analysis , not nostalgia, but measurable policy contrast between the Obasanjo/Atiku era and current instability.
Youth are not demanding flawless heroes. They are demanding credible strategy.
The proverb says, “When the foundation is strong, the house withstands the storm.” Youth are searching for a foundation, not fireworks.
The arithmetic remains decisive.
Approximately 22 million citizens aged 19–24.Thirty-seven million aged 18–34 registered voters.Nearly three quarters of the electorate within youthful brackets.
This is not a marginal constituency. It is the electoral engine room.
Indicators across North, South-West, South-East and South-South show rising receptivity toward a consolidated opposition platform within ADC. The curiosity is visible. The conversations are multiplying. The reassessment is underway.
But curiosity must become conviction.Conviction must become turnout.Turnout must become mandate.
The 2027 contest will not merely test party machinery. It will test whether institutional experience can harmonise with generational urgency , whether seasoned economic stewardship can align with youthful aspiration.
If ADC consolidates this generational surge under David Mark’s disciplined chairmanship and Atiku Abubakar’s expansive national credibility, it will not simply broaden appeal.
It will redefine inevitability.
Because in politics, whoever earns the confidence of the youth does not just win an election.
They inherit the direction of history.
Aare Amerijoye DOT.B
Director General,
The Narrative Force
